Aston Villa hosts Arsenal in the last match of round 21 in the English Premier League. The match is crucial for the guests as they were ousted from the top spot by Manchester City and Chelsea. Arsenal is now on the third place with a match in hand. However, a win tonight will return them as the leaders in the standings. Something that is extremely important because every error can be fatal for the dream of a trophy after a lengthy eight-year pause.
It should be noted that Aston Villa is one of three teams that has beaten Arsenal in the league so far. This happened in the first round when as a guest Villa prevailed with 3-1 and shocked everybody on the Emirates.
Today’s match shouldn’t be easier for the guests as Villa (even the fact they present badly as host this season with two wins, two draws and six losses), can always beat anyone in the league at home.
An advantage for Arsene Wenger could be the fact that the home team’s main scorer Christian Benteke has probably forgotten how to score goals and is not even clear whether he will be in the starting lineup or no. On the other hand, the manager of the guests will be able to rely on his titular striker Olivier Giroud and its strongest player Mesut Ozil, both returning after treatment.
What do the bookies offer for this match? In the bet365′s website you can see that Arsenal is the favorite to win with odds of 1.5. A potential draw tonight is estimated at 4.6 and a possible home win is 7. Bet-at-home offers odds for the home side of 6.6 and 4.3 is the draw. The odds for an away win are 1.45. The odds offered by William Hill are similar – 6.5, 4.2 and 1.5.
A quick look at the coefficients tells us that the chances of Arsenal seem slightly exaggerated. With such odds at Villa Park came Manchester City in September, but the victory went to the home team with 3-2.
That’s why an Asian Handicap betting for Aston Villa with margin of +1.5 and odds of 1.6 seems to me more than good. This bet will be a winner in all cases except for an away win by two goals or more.